JERUSALEM -- Freaks of historical trivia love to show how history often repeats itself.

Take, for example, the assassinations of Presidents Lincoln and Kennedy. Both were slain on a Friday and in the presence of their wives. Both were shot from behind and in the head. Their successors, both named Johnson, were Southern Democrats and in the Senate.

Both presidents' wives lost children through death while in the White House. Lincoln's secretary, whose name was Kennedy, advised him not to go to the theater. Kennedy's secretary, whose name was Lincoln, advised him not to go to Dallas. John Wilkes Booth shot Lincoln in the theater and ran to a warehouse. Lee Harvey Oswald shot Kennedy from a warehouse and ran to a theater. Booth and Oswald were assassinated before being brought to trial.

And for those who get their kicks from counting letters: The names Lincoln and Kennedy each contain seven letters; Andrew Johnson and Lyndon Johnson: 13; and John Wilkes Booth and Lee Harvey Oswald: 15.

Dates are also fun: Lincoln was elected in 1860; Kennedy in 1960. Andrew Johnson was born in 1808; Lyndon Johnson in 1908. Booth was born in 1839; Oswald in 1939.

Now, why on Earth should I be playing with this, when our house is on fire and the whole Middle East is on a brink of war? Is this a way for an Israeli today to escape from the horrible sights of fellow Israelis being lynched by Palestinian mob?

Not necessarily. I actually was thinking of how history repeats itself in our region. It evolves, however, around one person only: Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat.

Security analyst Edward Luttwak points out how every 10 years Arafat would go ahead and shoot himself in the foot.

· In 1970, he had practically established a mini-Palestinian state inside Jordan. But he, unsatisfied with the level of autonomy that the late King Hussein had given him, became a threat to the Hashemite Kingdom. In September 1970, after Palestinians hijacked four airliner aircraft and landed them near the Jordanian city of Zarka, holding their passengers as hostages, the Jordanian Army crushed the Palestinians. I saw them trying to cross the Jordan River, desperate to surrender to Israeli soldiers before the rough Beduin soldiers of King Hussein could lay their hands on them.

· In 1980, Arafat again had a mini-state, this time in Lebanon. Yet he didn't confine himself to fighting Israel; he took the liberty of messing with the Lebanese population, becoming the most hated group in Lebanon. No wonder that when Arafat was kicked out of Beirut in 1982, there was a great sigh of relief, and not from Israelis only.

· In 1990, now in Tunis, Arafat miscalculated again, and when Iraq invaded Kuwait, he rushed to Bagdad to kiss Saddam Hussein. It was the most expensive kiss in history, because thanks to Arafat's folly, the Palestinians were denied hundreds of millions of dollars hitherto flowing generously from the Gulf.

· In 2000, Arafat seems to have come so close to fulfilling a dream. Thanks to the Oslo accords, he now has a mini-state in Gaza and the West Bank. One more step, and he would have a real state. But at the crucial moment, he fumbled again. There was Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, in Camp David, willing to consider unprecedented, far-reaching concessions that amazed even the most dovish Israelis. But Arafat just couldn't take Yes for an answer. And now this recent burst of Palestinian violence, which has convinced many Israelis that Arafat is just not a partner for peace.

Furthermore, Arafat's gamble that the Arab states would mobilize to support him soon will prove to be another blunder. In the global village, the last thing that they need is unrest and war.

NOT A HEAD OF STATE

It's not for us, Israelis, to decide for the Palestinians who their leaders should be. If they are happy with Arafat, it's their business. The problem is that by being reluctant to drop the role of a revolutionary freedom fighter and settle down as a head of state, he is dooming his people -- and us -- to a continuation of the bloody struggle, without really getting the Palestinians closer to their national goals.

After all, at certain point, history stops repeating itself. There is no guarantee that 10 years from now, another opportunity for the Palestinians will present itself.

Uri Dromi is the publications director of the Israel Democracy Institute in Jerusalem.