(November 14) - Yesterday's attacks are an escalation in the conflict, but they are exactly according to the declared intent of the Fatah Tanzim, following the Palestinian Authority's failure to maintain massive street protests.
The so-called "Aksa intifada" is no longer a massive grassroots uprising against the Israeli presence in the territories. The Palestinians, closed off in their villages and unable to work, are fatigued. It has become a war between squads of armed Palestinians adopting guerrilla tactics and an IDF trying to protect itself and the Israeli residents of the territories.
The Palestinians have said they want Israel to pay the price of continued occupation, and are evening out the score, as they have threatened to do. Yesterday marked the first day since the unrest began nearly seven weeks ago that the number of Israeli deaths was more than the number of Palestinians killed in clashes.
If this is the war that the Palestinians want, what are the defense establishment's options?
It could easily be reasoned that the current modus operandi of drive-by shootings and ambushes is in direct reaction to the IDF decision, approved by the government, to no longer react but initiate actions against the Palestinian gunmen. This policy, although delayed for a week, was clearly evident last Thursday when an air force attack helicopter eliminated the top Fatah Tanzim leader in Bethlehem. The IDF hoped to send a message that all those behind attacks on Israelis would be targeted.
The ripple effect it had hoped for is being highly tested, for the time being.
The knee-jerk retaliation urged by many, including residents in Judea, Samaria, and the Gaza Strip, as well as some IDF commanders, will have to be measured, since too harsh a step could lead to a snowballing deterioration. Too weak a response will not placate Israelis, and could possibly lead to even more attacks by the Palestinians and perhaps even by Israeli civilians.
The IDF has flooded the territories with troops and has a massive presence on the roads. They also have quietly deployed soldiers and undercover units in the field to ambush gunmen. The roads are the lifelines of the settlements. Large numbers of forces are devoted to protecting them. But there are thousands of kilometers of roads, making it virtually impossible to totally prevent attacks, and striking on them sows fear and breaks the confidence of the settlers there.
The settlers are caught in a bind. Most residents of Judea, Samaria, and the Gaza Strip realize that they actually need the coexistence with their Palestinian neighbors. It is not their vision to see this cut off for an extended period of time. In the Gaza Strip, Arab laborers are desperately needed on the farms. If a war is declared, it merely isolates the settlements even more, and more soldiers will have to be deployed just to protect them.
Some settlers are calling on Prime Minister Ehud Barak to unleash the army, but the reins on the IDF are not being held by the politicians but by the generals themselves, defense officials noted last night. This is because the IDF understands that restraint has paid off during the six-week wave of unrest. The IDF cannot radically change its tactics.
Furthermore, while the trend is to lump all actions as being coordinated by - or at least not condoned by - the Palestinian Authority, it is uncertain that these attacks serve Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat's current interests.
The timing of the attacks is also somewhat embarrassing for the PA, since it comes as Barak met with US President Bill Clinton. Killing women also won't win the hearts of Americans or Israelis. The settlers' behavior has been restrained. Until now, they have been closely linked to the IDF, and the mission now is to maintain this and allow the roads to stay open. The main efforts need to be put into intelligence to find out who ordered these attacks, who carried them out, and capturing those responsible.